Thursday, September 29, 2022

Lousy Predictions, False Prophets and the Church

Not long ago I was reading a short article that made reference to 1 John 4:1-6 in their daily email. This short Biblical passage, along with a brief commentary, really got me thinking along a line somewhat different from that which I imagine was the point of their post. I do, however, think that there is a very solid rationale to this line of reasoning.

The passage in question reads as follows:

“Dear friends, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God, because many false prophets have gone out into the world. This is how you can recognize the Spirit of God: Every spirit that acknowledges that Jesus Christ has come in the flesh is from God, but every spirit that does not acknowledge Jesus is not from God. This is the spirit of the antichrist, which you have heard is coming and even now is already in the world.

You, dear children, are from God and have overcome them, because the one who is in you is greater than the one who is in the world. They are from the world and therefore speak from the viewpoint of the world, and the world listens to them. We are from God, and whoever knows God listens to us; but whoever is not from God does not listen to us. This is how we recognize the Spirit of truth and the spirit of falsehood.” (NIV)

The author of the post included this statement in their commentary, “...this month we have reflected on submitting to God so that we can discern how to live by his will. And here John helps us remember that we need to test all the words and voices and messages we hear “to see whether they are from God.””

The quotes above served as the seed or spark for what follows.

Please allow me to highlight the phrases that stand out for me:

-  do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God

-  many false prophets have gone out into the world

-  Every spirit that acknowledges that Jesus Christ has come in the flesh is from God

-  every spirit that does not acknowledge Jesus is not from God

-  the spirit of the antichrist, which you have heard is coming and even now is already in the world

-  They are from the world and therefore speak from the viewpoint of the world, and the world listens to them    ...........*(note: The “they” mentioned in this phrase is a reference to false prophets according to my understanding)

- This is how we recognize the Spirit of truth and the spirit of falsehood.”

Finally, there is the comment of the writer of the post:  here John helps us remember that we need to test all the words and voices and messages we hear “to see whether they are from God.”

Thinking about all these points - the warnings about false prophets, lying spirits and the failure to test those spirits/lies (leading to really bad decisions) - I am struck with just how relevant this message is in today’s world. Throughout history we’ve been exposed to false prophecies and prognostications which have led to terribly unwise or even disastrous decisions on the part of individuals, communities or even whole nations. This has always been the case when the truth is ignored or suppressed in favour of the lie/fantasy or pursuing some dubious (hidden but desired) outcome.

So while false prophets have been amongst us all along, there has been no time in history (that I can think of) where they have had as much impact globally as has been the case over the past few years.

I am especially struck by the large numbers of people, over the last two and a half years, who have been (and still remain) deceived by the proclamations of “false prophets” and evil/lying spirits. These are strong statements and I anticipate they might invoke a high degree of skepticism and ridicule in response. In today’s world, any mention of prophets or evil spirits is likely to be disbelieved and ignored by many folks -  while those willing to allow for such possibilities likely would limit them to a very narrow field or sphere thought of as “religion” or “matters spiritual.” After-all, for day to day matters we’re far too advanced and sophisticated to give ear to prophetic mutterings – we have scientists who proclaim the truth and we “follow the science” (or so we are told)

For many years society (as well as the church unfortunately) gradually changed from largely heeding the warnings given in scripture (such as given by John and quoted in this essay) to replacing, disregarding and/or disbelieving them. First the focus was shifted toward strictly the material world and away from considering the spiritual realm or any matters spiritual. The degree to which people sought to remove and replace God from their daily reality varied from very little to only within the church (and then only at certain specific times), all the way to total rejection. “Science” was thought to be all that was needed in a material world (and any other areas from which God had been removed). Since science is a study of the material world and since the material world follows the natural laws God has created, this approach might seem adequate to get by on a day-to-day basis.

So allow me to take literary license to rewrite the above passage to more clearly illustrate what this emerging “scientific” view might look like or become:

“Dear friends, do not believe every prognostication, but test the hypothesis to see whether it is “following the science” because many false scientists are at work in the world. This is how you can recognize real science: Every prediction that acknowledges rigid adherence to the scientific method and truthful reporting of consistently produced results can be called science, but every prediction that does not adhere strictly to facts and the scientific method can not be called science. This is the spirit of the conspiracy theory, which you have heard is coming and even now is already in the world.

You, dear children, are followers of science and have overcome conspiracies, because that which you follow is better informed than the one who is uneducated. They are poorly informed and unsophisticated and therefore speak from the viewpoint of the superstitious and ignorant, and there are many who listen to them. We are educated scientists, and whoever knows the science listens to us; but whoever does not follow the science does not listen to us. This is how we recognize truthful predictions versus conspiracy theories and dangerous, misleading information.”

On the face of it, the idea of using “science” to explain and predict happenings in the material world might seem reasonable – if one also recognizes some obvious limitations. If you eliminate God from the equation, you also eliminate His character and replace it with the hope that only known and provable facts will be reported as truth - despite all other influences and pressures – all while relying on flawed human nature. Science has no morality nor can it address or test anything outside the material realm. It is vulnerable to all kinds of human shortcomings, failings and deception – this is especially true when God and His word are denied or simply relegated to a “religious domain.” What has happened is the personhood of God has been replaced with a concept (science) and the authority, that is God’s alone, has been denied.

Therefore, it did not take very long for the above passage to be revised yet again so as to read:

“Dear friends, do not believe any predictions or warnings which have not been proclaimed by our experts and their computer models. They have “followed the science” and the science is settled. Many fake scientists are at work in the world. This is how you can recognize real science: Every prediction that acknowledges the supreme authority of government and their appointed experts can be called science, but all findings, predictions or warnings that do not adhere strictly to the officially decided upon narrative can not be called science. This is the spirit of the conspiracy theory, which you have heard is coming and even now is already in the world.”

In 1 John 4:1-6 (quoted at the start), John warns against false prophets, false promises and predictions and evil spirits. I believe his warning was meant to address the whole of society and not just what is said or happens within the four walls of a church building. Those spoken of as prophets were not limited to “religious proclamations” or just “spiritual matters.” They also addressed heads of state and spoke to every day concerns and matters of governance and state. There are many instances when kings and state leaders ignored the true prophets (choosing to listen to the false instead) and this always resulted in complete disaster. There are also recorded times when the prophets were heeded and the outcome was much better with disaster avoided.

Over the past several decades, and especially the past few years, we have seen one dire prediction after another and all have been claimed to be based on “the science” when in reality they have been based on   flawed models and bad science. Their cataclysmic prophecies were used as tools to instill fear and shape human behaviour toward some desired model of compliance. Now, one can question the motivation of using such obvious flawed models – but only at the risk of being labelled as a conspiracy theory nut - and then ignored. Pointed questions, challenges and debate have always been denied with statements such as the “science has been settled” – until it hasn’t. When the hypothesis is shown to be critically flawed, the proclamation becomes, “the science is evolving as we are learning new things.” So, is it settled or is it evolving? Depends on the agenda I guess.

Let’s look at just four examples of such scientific predictions (I’m going to label them as examples of false prophecies):

#1) The declaration of the C-19 pandemic began with a prediction of 2,200,000 deaths in the USA and 510,000 deaths in the UK. It was declared that extreme (2 week) lock-down measures must be implemented, based on those prophecies, “to flatten the curve.”

#2) It was prophesied the hospitals would be bursting at the seams and undergo a tremendous strain leading to the collapse of the health care system.

Outcome #1: Among other things, the models were exposed to be fatally flawed. This whole prediction was based on faulty modelling done by people like Neil Ferguson with a history of producing faulty models and calamity prediction. Not only were these numbers way overblown, in order to generate the level of fear and alarm that the initial announcements were meant to generate, deaths from numerous other causes were included in the daily media reporting. Not only this... but to spice it up even more, testing was implemented on a massive scale using an inappropriate procedure never intended for diagnostic purposes and known to produce largely false positives – particularly when run for the number of cycles most governments (and not “science”) mandated.

For comparison, here’s a critical scientific analysis of the issue:
“Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modelling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7447267/

Outcome #2:  As to the measures implemented in response to the prophecies (usually referred to as “the science”) the term disastrous would seem appropriate. Not only did the health care system not collapse, but what we saw was a very poor utilization of medical, therapeutic, diagnostic and personal support care resources. We saw the cancellation of needed surgeries, cancellation of most diagnostic testing for potentially life threatening diseases, a dramatic increase in suicides, the near destruction of the economies of countries and the devastation of many small and medium sized businesses.

The catastrophic burden on hospitals (which was supposedly a prime focus) simply never happened. To be fair, there were some hospitals (generally in large urban areas) that were stretched to their limits and those were the ones to receive the lions share of media attention. They legitimately needed extra help and attention – but because such a broad and general approach was decreed (rather than a very targeted approach) resources were very poorly utilized. Across the board, huge numbers of patients were simply to be discharged prematurely, the system set aside all but dire emergencies, and the focus was narrowed strictly to looking for the prophesied flood of pandemic patients.

It is now largely acknowledged that many, many hospitals were empty throughout the first two years of “the pandemic” and in some instances health care professionals were actually laid-off because their facilities were nearly empty. Mean time huge numbers of important diagnostic tests, surgeries and treatments were cancelled - many with disastrous outcomes for those whose diagnosis was missed or surgery delayed.

#3) Public mandatory masking, “social distancing,” and closing many businesses along with ordering ALL churches be closed was declared/prophesied as necessary in order to prevent the spread.

Outcome: The effects of these measures as well as their impact (with respect to the loss of personal freedom and civil rights) have been another disaster socially, economically, emotionally and spiritually. No scientific evidence has ever been produced (either before such measures or since) to show the effectiveness of such mandates. However many studies and statistics are now available that show the terrible harm caused by such measures not the least of which was the large increase in suicides.  By the way... sound medical practice, based on scientific study, has always held that you isolate the people who are actually sick and not the healthy population.

#4) Proclamations concerning the so called vaccines:  They will be/are necessary, have been adequately tested, and are safe and effective.

Outcome: Depending on how you look at these statements, they can be viewed as either false prophecies or straight up lies. In practical application the government implemented mandates (they insisted were based “on the science”) that were to be lifted only as certain target goals of compliance were reached. They then continually changed those goals and ultimately never fully lifted the mandates (all the while still claiming to “follow the science”). Every single claim made about the “vaccines” has been changed as each of the initial claims has demonstrably failed. People are now on their 4th and some on their 5th booster. Deaths and disabilities from the shots have skyrocketed according to numerous peer reviewed reports and studies that I’ve read. (Example) https://www.theepochtimes.com/young-adults-dying-in-record-numbers-but-not-from-covid-19_4716218.html?utm_source=MB_article_free&utm_campaign=mb-2022-09-09-ca&utm_medium=email&est=e5k3jqfjjkhD%2BR4Ogy0t%2F618OAwUUR5tJXWVdh%2F15q93dMFfZ7uv2uxW7F4TUQhUhA%3D%3D&utm_term=newstop&utm_content=1

The lying I made reference to, became very evident after it became apparent that the “vaccines” had no effect in preventing the spread of the disease. When this fact was pointed out and questioned during an EU investigation into the “pandemic” measures, representatives of Pfizer admitted the vaccines had never been tested to see if they stopped the spread and claimed no such assertions had been made. However this is simply untrue. Governments used the assertion that vaccinations would stop the spread (the effective rate being bandied about was 95% effective at preventing catching the disease and stopping the spread). These claims were also used as the basis for implementing various vaccine mandates and imposing restrictions on peoples freedoms. For a period of time public anger was stirred up against the “unvaxxed” with the claims Covid was now a “disease of the unvaxxed.” Subsequently the claim for continuing with the vaccination programs was the insistence that they would lessen the severity of infection and need for hospitalization. Of course these are unprovable claims (how exactly do you prove the statement “if I hadn’t had the shots it would have been a lot worse?”) and so far the statistics do not support the statement with regard to hospitalizations or deaths.

Over the years the spokespeople for this false god aka “science,” have made numerous other false claims and prophecies. A short list of such claims includes topics such as: our origins, the climate, family, sexuality, biology and human nature and needs. Each of those items is a topic worthy of a full and detailed discussion which is beyond the scope of this short essay. However this does beg the question, despite so many failed and failing false prophecies and pronouncements, despite such a terrible track record, why do so many people continue to listen to the voices of these false prophets? Could it be because as John says, “They are from the world and therefore speak from the viewpoint of the world, and the world listens to them.”

While this may explain why, despite such a terrible track record, so many people continue to listen to the voices of these false prophets, it raises an even more puzzling question; “What happened to the church with regard these same issues?” Sadly, it is my conclusion that large segments of “the church” went in lock-step with the world. Some continue to walk in the way of the world and now some have permanently closed. While I believe it is easy to apply worldly reasoning and rationalizations why this would happen, it is important to remember whose church it is and that a spiritual rather than only a material reason needs be sought. It is important to remember that John’s message and warning was written to those identified as believers or “the church.” One might wonder why such a message would even be necessary for believers – it might seem such a message should more properly be directed to the unbelieving world...but the church? It’s a curious fact that much of the New Testament has to do with the birth and growth of the church. Jesus declared the “gates of hell” would not prevail against His church (Matthew 16:18). He did not say, however, that the church would escape temptation and attack from the forces of evil – nor did He say it would never need confronting or correcting. Many of the letters in the New Testament are letters of both encouragement AND correction. In fact, one could draw a parallel between the need for correction (addressed toward the church) and that directed at Israel in the Old Testament.

This seems a good place to include Paul’s admonition and warning to the church in Ephesus (quoting from Ephesians 6:10-18): 

“Finally, be strong in the Lord and in the strength of his might. Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the schemes of the devil. For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers over this present darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly places. Therefore take up the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand firm. Stand therefore, having fastened on the belt of truth, and having put on the breastplate of righteousness, and, as shoes for your feet, having put on the readiness given by the gospel of peace. In all circumstances take up the shield of faith, with which you can extinguish all the flaming darts of the evil one; and take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God, praying at all times in the Spirit, with all prayer and supplication. To that end, keep alert with all perseverance, making supplication for all the saints...”  (ESV)

Most teaching I’ve encountered, with regard to this passage, has been directed toward the individual – reminding us that the battle is largely spiritual and how we each must put on the whole armour of God. This is true but let us not overlook that it is the church body that is addressed in this letter. It clearly outlines the schemes of the devil, and reminds us: ”...we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers over this present darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly places...”

So I’m left to wonder about the times we’re in as I also wonder about the so called church. Are we witnessing the church of Laodicea?  It was said of this church, “For you say, I am rich, I have prospered, and I need nothing, not realizing that you are wretched, pitiable, poor, blind, and naked. I counsel you to buy from me gold refined by fire, so that you may be rich, and white garments so that you may clothe yourself and the shame of your nakedness may not be seen, and salve to anoint your eyes, so that you may see.” (Revelation 3:17-18 ESV)  If this is indeed the case, the warning is dire and can be ignored only at one’s own peril.